For the corresponding 2 +26 environmental programs, the national automobile urea assembly there have been many cuts or limited
19 large convening soon, for the corresponding 2 +26 environmental program, the national automobile urea assembly also appeared a lot of production cuts or limited, operating rate is reduced to calendar year low, combined with the good demand in the international arena, car urea price change a high season Situation, the contrarian rise, a cargo hard to find marketing planning company, then we look at the current impact of vehicle urea positive and negative is how?
Good one, partial parking, limited production shows that the tight price Yang
Jincheng region is currently everyone Guanzhongzhongzhongzhong, due to stop or limited production in the country is the first in the country before the car urea market in Shandong, but since the fourth quarter of last year, Shanxi prices are up first, and then lead Shandong, Hebei and the surrounding. As can be drawn from the table above, the parking and re-production in the Jincheng area during the period of the 19th National Congress only takes about 10-15 days. If the production volume is affected by 10 days, it will be about 170,000 tons, of which 117,000 tons will be reduced daily. During the heating period of 30%, but also reduce the production of up to 610,000 tons, Jincheng is a large grain car with urea base, the latter part of the big grain is more difficult to find a cargo.
Good two, frequent international bidding good domestic water rose
As of the end of August, India's domestic urea stock for motor vehicles dropped to 1.27 million tons, the lowest level since March 2016, with both imports and output declining while sales of traders increased. Coupled with India in advance fertilizer for the next season ahead of schedule, so there will be a month to sign the three bidding surprise situation. Meanwhile, on 26 October, Ethiopia will re-purchase 550,000 tons of pre-abandoned 550,000 tons of urea granules (the price will not be high until the price is discarded). There is no doubt that the domestic market for domestic urea is optimistic.
Good three, profit-driven part of the liquid ammonia
Car urea and liquid ammonia contrast, no matter from the price increase or the level of old dividends, can be drawn more than the production of liquid ammonia car urea more dividend, the current price of car urea conversion liquid ammonia theoretical price should be 2600- 2700 yuan / ton; then let us compare the liquid ammonia and methanol, methanol prices cut 150-200 yuan (monoalcohol, alcohol process different) and liquid ammonia equivalent, and on October 17 Shandong mainstream price of methanol 2580-2600 yuan / ton, so as a liquid ammonia, car urea, methanol enterprises, the liquid ammonia profit is the best, of course, this is to explain why the car urea business started slightly lower reason .
Negative one, the traditional off-season fertilizer, demand continued to apathetic
Procurement from the downstream point of view, the plate, the International Trade is still the main force for this round of procurement, of course, do not rule out the right amount of part of the procurement of compound fertilizer warehousing, (Phosphate compound fertilizer will soon, High, do not take urgent. The plate market in terms of site construction companies, environmental protection under the pressure of large and medium-sized plate manufacturers to buy the majority chase sell into or sale, regardless of the peak season; and not only the trade can be reserved, you can set exports to Hong Kong, or post-northeast, in short supply There are distribution, and the lower farmers and small distributors, because there is no agricultural fertilizer, mining and even if no sales, simply wait and see wait and see.
In summary, the positive factors of car urea occupy the dominant position at this stage, start low support high vehicle urea operation, combined with frequent international bidding, the market to buy or not buy up, combined with speculation atmosphere thick, virtually help At the same time, there is no traditional winter storage pool, centralized collection and disposal of goods with the same time, can easily trigger the herd effect; even if there is a fertilizer shortage in spring next year, subject to climate change, Operating capacity and the spring transport capacity was blocked, but it is also more difficult to clear the cash concentration in the future to cash in on congestion, which in turn led to car panic selling urea, resulting in rapid price decline. Therefore, in addition to remove the risk of trigger nodes, the use of funds should also be reasonable.
